Mexico’s problems are our problems – February 23, 2026

Turns out Mexico used their military, with intelligence support from the US, to both “dismantle the information networks” of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes as well as hill him and some 30 or so members of his cartel. Intention to be an organized raid turned into a gunfight with results making international news.

Unrest, requiring additional Mexican authorities, spread throughout the region impacting the resort areas of Puerto Vallarta and elsewhere. Shelter in place orders, airports shutdown, roads blocked, all with additional fighting.

So, why now?

Likely a combination of things.

One could argue that “El Mencho,” as leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), was largely responsible for an escalation in the seemingly never-ending fight for control over trafficking of fentanyl, methamphetamine, and cocaine ultimately to this nation. More than just the CJNG 2015 rocket-propelled grenade attack on a Mexican military helicopter, the violence has been prevalent for years in the region from the cartels in general.

Could be just a response was finally needed, something Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum felt compelled to accomplish. Could be pressure from the Trump Administration, a campaign promise, that ultimately includes a threat of US military intervention into Mexico and higher tariffs on products from Mexico (the recent Supreme Court decision on this notwithstanding.)

Or this simply may be Mexico saying they can handle their own issues, begging the question on why the issue exists in the first place.

War on Drugs background

The idea of a so called War on Drugs is nothing new. No matter if you believe this was kickstarted with The Harrison Narcotics Tax Act of 1914, later with The Controlled Substances Act of 1970 and a year after with Nixon making the declaration of the “War on Drugs” while talking to Congress, or some other event the concept of going after those demanding and those supplying goes way back.

The uptick during the 1980s ended up in the history books as well. The Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986 established harsh required terms of sentence, resulting in an explosion of nonviolent drug offenses from about 50,000 in 1980 to well over 400,000 by 1997.

By 2000 the US became the undisputed incarceration capital of the planet, putting more people behind bars than any other nation. By 2008 we hit our historical peak at roughly 760 per 100,000 people, and now down to about 614 or so depending on who you ask. The company the US keeps being at near top in incarceration rate includes nations like El Salvador, Cuba, and Rwanda just to name a few.

The disparity caused along racial lines is also beyond any dispute.

For black men born in the early 1980s, there was a 1 in 3 risk of an estimated lifetime likelihood of going to prison. The somewhat good news is for black men born in the early 2000s that number is a little less risk of 1 in 5. But that said an estimated 15% of all black adult men have been in prison at some point, with nearly the same 1 of every 3 convicted of at least a felony (regardless of the conviction resulting in a prison sentence.)

The social and economic implications of this staggering, and breaking the cycle is near impossible.

Across all demographics, children of incarcerated parents are about 3 times more likely to be incarcerated themselves at some point and we have a statistical fact in that 1 in 4 black children born in the 1990s to early 2000s has experiences at least one parent be incarcerated. The broken home factor from absence of a father or a mother, to the community effect of social and economic isolated communities or neighborhoods is also well documented. For black males especially, being a high school dropout has a near 70% change of being imprisoned before 40 years old. Converse to that, college educated black males have near identical incarceration rates to their white male peers.

Why bring all that up?

In short, the US is the key buyer of drugs… in every single context.

The US is considered by plenty of sources, very few suggesting otherwise, as both the world’s largest consumer and importer of illegal drugs. Cannabis (legal and illegal,) number of cocaine users, still high numbers of heroin users, and total opioids & synthetics by volume. This nation leads them all, including continual records year on year for the highest drug overdose death rates globally. In some categories it is not even close.

The US leads in these categories for all sorts of reasons. Economic wealth with very high levels of disposable income, allowing for higher “recreational” and habitual drug use. In this nation alone some 195 US cities are identified as having significant “infiltration by international drug trafficking” organizations down to street level gangs. Supply routes are well established, primarily through Mexican “drug corridors” and under consistent cartel handling, despite the fighting and occasional drug lord removal.

Demand is high, and supply is consistent.

And speaking of other contexts. The US is the world leader in both the total volume and per-capita spending on prescription drugs, and again it is not even close.

As of early 2026, Americans spend an average of just under $1,500 per person annually on pharmaceuticals, which is roughly 40% higher than the next closest nation, Germany at just under $900. I know, I know… another conversation for another time.

So now we have to ask, what was accomplished?

Outside of disrupting a drug cartel in Mexico, the answer is no one really knows what the result will be.

It is true that the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is one of the world’s most powerful drug trafficking organizations, rivaling the Sinaloa Cartel in scale and global reach. They have, had, a presence in at least 21 of 32 Mexico states and is considered “active” in all 50 U.S. states. Internationally, its influence extends to over 40 countries across every continent except Antarctica. They have been designated as a terrorist organization, and have been known to be involved in human trafficking to complex fraud targeting US citizens.

But, as mentioned, CJNG goes up against the Sinaloa Cartel and Cárteles Unidos (United Cartels) often. The number of other cartels and “families” suggests that any incursion into this area means doing far more to radically alter the flow of drugs up through Mexico and into the US.

By taking the fight to cartels there is a slight change in tactic here, combating this nations drug problem by focusing on those making up the demand side has not proven itself to curb the demand level. Supply still happens, so the question to ponder is how much of a dent in supply was made with this action.

We simply do not know, some degree of impact of course, but to what end.

The Future

Agree or not with how the Trump Administration is going about this, threatening Mexico to basically get their house in order or he will, means eventually the focus for them is to turn towards Americans directly. Those making up the demand side of the equation, just as Republicans tend to do historically speaking.

As mentioned above, but with more clarity, during the Reagan administration, 1981 to 1989,) the US prison population experienced its most explosive growth in history, nearly doubling in size. When Ronald Reagan took office in 1981, there were roughly 329,000 people in state and federal prisons and by the time he left office in 1989, that number was well over 627,000 (note the numbers earlier in this conversation were federal only.)

We cannot rule out changes, or additions, to the mentality of the Comprehensive Crime Control Act of 1984, the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1986, and the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988. Note that Democrats at the time were in on all this. You have to get well post 2000 for Democrats to question the wisdom in a manner that Trump and Republicans today likely never will. “Tough on crime” brings crime down is still a political theory looking for eventual realization, if it ever does becomes a political debate point going back decades. The numbers in all this by trend are a mixed bag at best.

Why Mexico’s problems are ours too.

A very likely two-way street here.

More than this War on Drugs renewal meaning targets for those that supply and those that demand, the politics of the fight also means our nations are inherently linked. The blend of international affairs with domestic matters, even if the former looks like the emphasis the potential wins politically are here too.

Economically already linked from the purposes of North American trade, the social implications of Mexico and the US cleaning up their crime problem could become a focal point between troubled leadership in Mexico and the US. Different degree and reasons important, what is also important is the US pressuring a neighbor for a potential win here. Keep in mind that as of this year Mexico is our largest trading partner and some 15.7% of all imported products comes from Mexico. The value is in the hundreds of billions for 2025, and recent trends suggest over $1 Billion in products comes into the nation every day.

History suggests cartels will recover, reform and realign, over a period of time. So, which is realized first? The win politically knowing the trade value of Mexico despite the tariff hype, or the recovery of one of the most profitable illegal enterprises on the planet.

The only other consideration to make here is does this all boil down to another in a long line of distractions for Trump and Republicans today dealing with declining polling support and the midterms campaign season just underway. Venezuela, Greenland, threats against others, pissing off most of who used to be our closest European allies, recently moving plenty of military assets close to engagement with Iran, no end in sight for Russia and Ukraine, lest we forget the never ending campaign of Israel into Gaza. Not a whole lot of good news internationally, and the news for Republicans on domestic matters is likely worse.

Consider all this as the mainstream media runs nonstop stories on what is going on in Mexico without much exploration as to why. Those on the left side of the fence in media and commentary smell blood in the water for Republicans holding Congress, and a few early races gives Democrats solid hope.

Interesting timing of course, President Trump speaks to the nation tomorrow, the State of the Union.

Likely to be… lively.

Odds are there will be some red-faced angry rant moments aimed at the Supreme Court, several Republicans in Congress, likely the media and others but a few victory laps will be claimed. This renewed War on Drugs, taking the fight to a cartel’s backyard by threatening US assets operating inside of Mexico, is likely to make the list.